Election Day Predictions

Update: 12:30 PM. I just want to stress that this post is just for fun, akin to making election predictions with friends or family. These are my best guesses based on my analysis of the data and assessment of the campaigns and strategies of the races to date. My local predictions are largely based on a review of the primary election results and my predictions at the National Level from reviewing 538 Election Forecast and NYTimes Upshot. Obviously, I'm likely to be wrong on at least some of these.

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Some quick election morning predictions.


Local Elections

Board of Education

District 1: Christina Delmont-Small

District 2: Antonio Watts

District 3: Jolene Mosley

District 4: Jen Mallo

District 5: Yun Lu


Circuit Judge

Quincy Coleman


Ballot Questions

All Yes


Thoughts: On BOE, Watts and Mosley are locks. Lu will beat Vaillancourt by a large margin. And in the two closest races, I'm giving the edge to the incumbents and predict that CDS and Mallo will each prevail, with Mallo beating Sezin Palmer by the slimmest margin of any of the races.


National Election

President/Vice President: Biden/Harris

Senate: 53 Democratic Seats


Thoughts: This year, the polls will be right. Biden/Harris will win in a landslide - 339 electoral votes to 199. Biden/Harris will take Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia - we will know they are the winners of at least 2 of these 3 states by midnight tonight meaning we can all go to sleep with the knowledge that Biden that will be next president of the United States. The Dem ticket will also win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but these results aren't expected until later in the week. Trump wins Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.


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